Predictive Habitat Models and Visual Surveys to Identify Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems on Seamounts in the North Pacific Fisheries Commission Convention Area

The United Nations General Assembly called upon States to manage fisheries sustainably and protect vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from destructive fishing practices when they adopted Resolution 61/105 in 2006. The Convention on the Conservation and Management of High Seas Fisheries Resources in the North Pacific Ocean requires North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC) members to develop a process to identify VMEs using the best scientific information available. NPFC identified four taxonomic groups of corals as indicators of potential VMEs but has not yet developed objective and quantitative definitions of VMEs based on catches, visual surveys, predictive models, or other types of information. Moreover, to date no VMEs have been identified in the northeast (NE) part of the NPFC Convention Area (CA). In 2021, the NPFC’s Small Working Group (SWG) on VMEs proposed the first step in a framework to use the best available data to identify VMEs, including visual data (i.e. video and/or photographic images) and predictive models. Canada has limited visual data and model predictions of the suitable habitat for VME indicator taxa in the NE part of NPFC’s CA where it fishes for Sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria). In this working paper, we propose one quantitative method of VME identification that integrates visual data and model predictions in a manner that aligns with the SWG VME’s framework, the precautionary approach, the Convention, and the research plan of NPFC’s Scientific Committee. We use data from Cobb Seamount to illustrate our proposed methodology. Exploratory application of our approach leads to the identification of 83 1-km2 areas that are likely to be VMEs at depths ranging from the pinnacle of Cobb at 18 m to 1,573 m, including one VME on the northwest flank of Cobb Seamount. The primary goal for this working paper is to propose and receive feedback on our approach before applying it to identify VMEs and areas that are likely to be VMEs in the NE part of the NPFC’s CA. Next steps include (1) revising our approach based on input from NPFC members, stakeholders, and observers, (2) applying our revised method and identifying VMEs and areas that are likely to be VMEs in the NE part of the NPFC CA, and (3) engaging in periodic review of the analyses, especially when new data become available.