Pathways for the incorporation of climate change into the work of the North Pacific Fisheries Commission

Incorporating climate change considerations into the North Pacific Fisheries Commission's (NPFC) management framework is essential to address the pressing impacts on key species in the convention area. Climate change is expected to introduce complex environmental shifts—including ocean warming, acidification, and changes in dissolved oxygen and salinity—that will likely affect the distribution, growth, and reproductive success of key NPFC species. The current NPFC resolution on climate change identifies the impact that climate change is likely to have and the need to develop a comprehensive approach to understanding and addressing the impacts of climate change in the convention area. This report provides and overview of the literature and data available to evaluate and address climate change related impacts on managed stocks, the IPCC ocean climate change predictions, and potential strategies for the NPFC to integrate climate change into its fisheries management. Addressing the effects of climate change on a basin wide scale should include the following steps; 

• Collaboration between the NPFC, other regional organizations (i.e. UN or PICES and the BECI project) and NPFC members management agencies.
• Enhance monitoring fish of stocks and bycatch species through an increase in fisheries independent surveys, because commercial catch and effort is often affected by market, economic, regulatory and other drivers which are often disconnected from the ecological shifts driven by climate change.
• Development of a regional observer program.  
• Expansion of fisheries-independent surveys to older individuals for the NPFC priority species surveyed only in the pre-recruit to juvenile stage.
• Adopt an iterative program of work that begins with a literature review, prioritization of research and the creation of a workplan that includes
  
  • Characterization and projection of climate driven changes in a the NPFC region,
  • Estimation of the effects environmental factors on demographic parameters and processes (i.e. recruitment, growth, survival, etc.) via laboratory and simulation studies
  • Development of population dynamics model(s) adapted to include environmental data to estimate the effects of environmental change, link this to a stock assessment model,
  • Project and assess the implications of climate change under current and alternative fishing and climate change scenarios.
  • Provide climate-informed (climate ready) management advice in the form of reference points along with an understanding of how they may change over time, and the risks associated with alternative future climate scenarios.
  • Communicate potential socio-economic implications of climate change (on the distribution, productivity etc.) to fishery dependent communities and other stakeholders

 The insights gained from a comprehensive system of study will be critical for developing adaptive management strategies that ensure the sustainability of both target and non-target species under changing ocean conditions. By integrating climate considerations into its monitoring, research, and management processes, the NPFC can better anticipate climate-related changes and ensure sustainable fisheries in a rapidly changing ocean environment.